Where smart business lenders get insights on how to make data-driven decisions in a post-pandemic economy
Macroeconomic Indicators | Credit Trends | Lending Conditions
Atlas Platform follows the key factors affecting small business sentiment, consumer spending habits, and credit trends currently influencing business lending portfolio performance. Check in frequently to get deep dive insights and tips on how small business lenders can leverage this data.
remain at exceptionally low levels and should continue to perform well.
Has slowed to a normal post-recession pace as businesses continue to face labor force challenges.
Appears to be accelerating, potentially creating a wage-price spiral giving staying power to broader inflationary pressures.
from the Federal Reserve will likely be removed at a faster pace than anticipated as minutes from the Fed’s December meeting revealed.
remain accommodative as a net 11% of senior loan officers surveyed have reported easing standards for loans to small firms.
Have been affected by supply chain issues resulting in low inventory levels which will hamper sales potential in the Holiday Season.
as measured has accelerated to 6.9% due largely to the combined effects of reopening supply chain disruptions and rising energy costs.
as determined by the Federal Reserve, has taken a “hawkish” turn. The Fed has signaled that it will end asset purchases and raise interest rates three times next year due to persistent inflation.
remain elevated as seen through the pandemic creating opportunities for small business lenders
are at heightened levels alongside total job openings. Much of this labor force stress appears concentrated in the retail, hospitality and service sectors.
While consumer spending on goods has far exceeding its pre-pandemic spending levels, service spending has not yet reached its 2020 peak.
continues as the third quarter GDP release shows an expansion of 4.9% year over year. While initially impressive, the quarter over quarter growth rate decelerated from 1.64% to 0.50%.
needs are at their highest level in 10 years while businesses and employees navigate a changed work environment.
with labor and component shortages continues to impact consumers and businesses.
ended across the country on September 5th. Over 6 million people are no longer receiving benefits.
have been running above trend for several months. Continued inflationary pressures could place pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates earlier than expected.
Small Business Delinquencies (SBDI) remains at low levels after recovering from distress in the first half of 2020 due to the Covid-19 crisis. Certain industries are now showing delinquency rates below pre-pandemic levels.
Consumer Sentiment has shown recent disappointing readings as other sentiment indicators continue to register expansionary levels. This is likely due to the impact and concern of the Delta variant. Recent waning levels in hospitalizations and new cases could suggest the worst has passed.
Consumer strength is seen in retail sales despite the month over month decline and disappointing sentiment. Spending levels remain well above the long term trend and last year’s levels.
The small business financing environment has become more accommodating with credit growth as reflected in LOC originations exceeding pre-pandemic growth rates.
Sentiment data from small businesses, manufacturers and the service sector all point to broad optimism at or near pre-pandemic levels supporting the broader economic environment.
Consumer strength is seen in retail sales as spending remains above trend levels. Credit utilization rate declined with stimulus money or savings from reduced discretionary spending used to pay down card balances. As credit utilization rates rise towards pre-pandemic levels and the unemployment rate continues to improve, retail sales will remain strong.
CPI (Consumer Price Index)levels have recently registered readings above trend. This recent inflation is largely the result of pandemic related supply chain shortages due to re-routed tankers, closed sawmills and chip factories, etc.
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Copyright 2021 StreetShares, Inc. This document has been prepared for general information purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. This document and the information contained herein is “AS IS” and is based, in part, on information obtained from other sources. Our use of information from other sources does not imply that we have independently verified or necessarily agree with any of such information. Please refer to your own legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advisors for specific advice.
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